Predicted Trend 3/6: Gen Z are leading a cultural shift toward sobriety
We’re now at the halfway point in our anti‑trends blog series, and having already debunked the supposed boom in creative participation and challenged the idea that the blurring of traditional life stages is some brand‑new phenomenon, it’s time to turn our attention to another widely circulated assumption: that Gen Z are leading a cultural shift toward sobriety. This narrative has gained traction across headlines and social feeds alike, but as with most generalisations, the reality is far more layered than the clickbait suggests. Before we accept the claim that a single cohort is driving a sober revolution, it’s worth examining what’s actually changing, and what this means for the sector.
Generation not so sensible
In 2022 The Guardian ran with a headline ‘Generation sensible risk missing out on life experiences’, detailing the virtuous behaviours of Gen Z, particularly their dwindling relationship with alcohol. Since then, dozens of articles have attributed this change in drinking culture to a more dedicated approach to health and wellness, commenting that Gen Z drink less alcohol, exercise more and eat a healthier diet.
The future of the industry was called into question and thousands of non-alcoholic beer brands were born. But is it all so black and white?
The prediction for 2026
...not quite. Turns out there are a huge number of reasons alcohol sales dipped amongst this generation, and not all are health related. Generation not so sensible after all.
Why won’t Gen Z going sober be a trend this year?
Put simply, because they haven’t stopped drinking, they are just drinking differently.
Gen Z have a different approach and style to drinking that is at odds with their millennial counterparts. Think less binge drinking and more intentional drinking. Health does play a big role in this shift but so too does affordability, emphasis on productivity and a digital consciousness greater than any other generation.
Gen Z know the risks of being out of control when everyone has a mobile phone. Getting cancelled isn’t just for bad TV shows, it’s a risk many young people aren’t willing to take.
What will happen instead?
Drinking amongst this cohort will likely continue to rise (recent studies show a 10% rise in Gen Z’s who have consumed alcohol in the last 6 months 2023-2025), but their behaviour and mindset will be unlike any previous generation.
So, what are these unique behaviours?
Sober Curiosity: Gen Z will likely lead the sober curious movement, dipping in and out of drinking and practicing moderation.
Damp drinking: Reducing overall alcohol intake and avoiding over drinking/ hangovers.
Zebra Striping: Creating new drinking behaviours such as Zebra Striping, the practice of having one alcoholic drink followed by a non-alcoholic drink.
Premium selection: A preference for quality over quantity. Gen Z are investing in luxury spirits and premium wines, focusing on the experience of drinking less but better.
What does Gen Z shift in drinking culture mean for brands?
Gen Z are creating their own rulebook for drinking and engaging in behaviours at odds with previous generations.
They are mindful and moderate yet will spend more on premium brands/ experiences, presenting an interesting opportunity for brands likely focused on older demographics.
They have developed new consumption behaviours that better fit their way of life but could offer new category entry points for brands who have both alcoholic and non- alcoholic offerings.
They have a greater awareness of the social and physical impacts of alcohol which could inform how brands advertise to this cohort.
As we continue to sift through the noise of trend‑driven headlines, what becomes clear is that cultural shifts rarely belong to a single generation and the story around sobriety is no exception.
What we’re seeing isn’t a sudden moral shift towards sobriety, but a predictable response to changing contexts, incentives and social norms. When the risks of drinking feel higher (hangovers, digital footprints, lost productivity), and the rewards of control are more visible (monetary gains, physical and mental health benefits), behaviour adapts. Gen Z aren’t rejecting alcohol, they’re managing it. For brands, the opportunity lies in understanding why these changing behaviours are occurring and in which contexts.
The Final Word
Gen Z is *not* just going sober. They are damp drinking, sober curious, zebra striping drinking moderately.... the list goes on. This is a generation drinking differently and brands need to take notice of actual behaviours rather than headlines.
